"Talks are still ongoing in an effort to unlock a deal between the U.S. and Iran", reports Axios citing sources; Qatari negotiators have been in Tehran with ongoing talks for 12 hours

• Qatari negotiators have been in Tehran with ongoing talks for 12 hours, a diplomatic source told Axios' Ravid.
• The source added that Qatari mediators have also been in touch regularly with the White House during the day.
• "Talks are still ongoing in an effort to unlock a deal between the U.S. and Iran", the source said

Qatar has served as an intermediary between Washington and Tehran on multiple occasions, and its negotiators shuttling between the two capitals has historically been one of the more reliable signals that a track is live rather than performative; the Doha channel has previously carried prisoner exchanges, nuclear file contacts and sanction-related discussions. A session stretching past twelve hours, with mediators in simultaneous contact with the White House, is the kind of detail that in past episodes of this sort has indicated substance over choreography, though long sessions have also preceded dead ends. The transmission channel for oil is the risk premium embedded in front-month crude: headlines of progress have tended to bleed it out, while collapses or escalation have re-priced it back in, with the physical angle being Iranian export volumes and any sanction relief pathway rather than immediate supply. The case distinction that matters is between a nuclear-framework deal, which would engage sanctions architecture and export flows over time, and narrower arrangements on detainees or regional de-escalation, which move the premium only briefly. The tells are follow-on reporting from the same sourcing, any White House or State Department readout, and whether Iranian officials confirm engagement, since Tehran's public framing has often diverged from the mediator's. Until something formal emerges, the signal is directional, and positioning around it has historically been faded on both resolution and failure headlines when the actual deliverable proved incremental.