US CRUDE WRAP: WTI (Z6) SETTLES USD 2.88 HIGHER AT USD 102.78/BBL

The crude complex saw gains as US-Iran tensions continue to intensify, amid reports that military movements are under way in the Middle East to give US President Trump options if he decides to resume strikes against Iran. Adding to this, the WSJ reported overnight, citing sources, that the US has told several Gulf Arab countries to be prepared for a short, intense military campaign after the midterm elections. As a result, WTI and Brent ground higher through the US session to hit peaks of USD 103.55/bbl and USD 112.61/bbl, but saw knee-jerk downside after Iran's Foreign Minister said "Iran continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed, and remains in close, ongoing contact with intermediaries to review ideas that can ensure implementation of its 7-day plan in even less than a week". Earlier in the session, benchmarks saw two-way trade on reports about Qatar. Initially, energy prices fell on reports that Qatari mediators had presented Iran with a new draft deal in Tehran on Sunday, with Iran considering the proposal and a response expected by the end of the week, but the move was swiftly pared as separate reports indicated that Qatar had not presented a new proposal to end hostilities between Iran and the US. Ahead of settlement, choppy trade was seen in response towards Axios reports (citing sources) that mediators are warning Iran that accepting the proposals may be its only way to avert major attacks after the midterms; The White House has told mediators it will give its view on the proposed deal once it knows whether Iran accepts.

On the supply side, Fars reported that satellite imagery indicates significant damage to the main refining unit at Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery (550k BPD) following a strike by Yemeni armed forces, leaving the unit inoperable. However, Saudi Arabia has yet to confirm this. As a reminder, on Tuesday a Houthi military spokesperson claimed Yemeni forces had struck the facility. Elsewhere, the White House stated that the oil agreement with Venezuela will deliver a total of 65bln barrels.

In the weekly EIA data, crude drew 1.892mln bbls, with the SPR falling 0.1mln bbls to 282.6mln bbls. Distillates drew more than anticipated and gasoline saw an unexpected build. Crude production jumped 723k BPD W/W to 13.992mln BPD.

Sessions of this kind, where crude reprices on military build-up reporting rather than an actual supply outage, have historically produced a risk premium that is quick to build and quicker to fade; the established pattern is a grind higher on strike-option headlines, knee-jerk air pockets on any diplomatic counter-signal, and eventual giveback of most of the premium if diplomacy holds or strikes prove symbolic rather than infrastructure-targeting. The tape followed that template precisely: peaks of USD 103.55 (WTI) and USD 112.61 (Brent) gave way to a sell-the-headline dip on the Iranian Foreign Minister's remarks, with the Qatar mediation reports producing the same two-way chop intraday. The distinction that matters here is between headline risk and physical loss: the reported Ras Tanura damage, unconfirmed by Riyadh, is the item that would convert a premium into an actual tightening of product supply, and unverified strike claims against Gulf energy infrastructure have a long history of being walked back or overstated, so confirmation is the tell. The Venezuela agreement figure and the EIA print (a modest crude draw, a large weekly production jump to just under 14mln BPD) are secondary; in geopolitically-driven sessions, inventory data typically moves the market only briefly before the conflict narrative reasserts. Worth watching: whether Iran responds to the draft within the flagged window, any Saudi confirmation or denial on Ras Tanura, and whether the premium survives into the next session or begins the usual decay once headlines pause.