US Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr 4.1% (Prev. 3.6%)

A shift of this size in the near-year median has in past cycles repriced the front end directly, with the second year and the longer-run dot then determining whether the move reads as a timing adjustment or a higher-for-longer regime signal; the former steepens or shifts the very front of the curve, the latter drags the belly with it. The established sequence is that attention moves immediately to the dispersion of the dots rather than the median alone, since a tight cluster carries more weight than a median pulled by a few hawkish submissions, and then to the press conference for whether the chair endorses or softens the message. The follow-ons worth watching are how the inflation and growth projections accompanying the dots were revised, since that reveals whether the higher path reflects stickier prices or stronger activity, two readings with opposite implications for real yields and the dollar. In comparable hawkish SEP revisions, the initial front-end selloff has tended to partially retrace once the chair's tone is absorbed, so the knee-jerk move is rarely the final one.