US Interest Rate Projection - 2nd Yr 3.9% (Prev. 3.4%)
A higher second-year projection in the rate outlook points to an upward revision in the median path, the kind of shift that historically reprices the belly and front end of the curve more than the long end, since it speaks to how long policy stays restrictive rather than where the terminal rate sits.
FOMC STATEMENT COMPARE:
Fed hikes rates by 25bps to 3.75-4.00%, as expected; unanimous decision
US Interest Rate Projection - 2nd Yr 3.9% (Prev. 3.4%)
Ciena (CIEN) says revenue is expected to more than double by 2029 with potential upside driven by supply
JPMorgan's (JPM) Michele says Bessent has done his best to stabilise the long-end
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Revisions of this size between projection rounds have tended to matter more for what they signal about the committee's reaction function than for the level itself: a higher-for-longer median with no change at the peak implies delayed easing, while a higher peak alongside it implies a different, more hawkish case, and the two trade differently. Past episodes of this kind have seen the initial curve flattening partially unwind as subsequent data either validate or contradict the revised path, since projections are conditional and carry no commitment. The follow-ons that have mattered in comparable instances are the chair's framing of the revision, the dispersion around the median rather than the median alone, and how the next inflation and labour prints test it. The dollar response in such episodes has tracked the front-end differential rather than the headline number.
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