US Interest Rate Projection - 3rd Yr 3.6% (Prev. 3.1%)

The distinction that matters is between the first-year dots, which set timing expectations at the front end, and the outer-year dots, which reprice the belly and the long end; a half-point shift in the third year, on the scale seen here relative to the prior projection, is a level signal rather than a scheduling one. In past cycles, upward drift in the outer dots has tended to come alongside upward revisions to inflation or growth forecasts in the same projections, and the accompanying materials usually reveal whether the move reflects stickier price assumptions or a higher estimated neutral rate, two readings with different implications for how much of the curve reprices. The dot plot is a median of individual submissions rather than a committee decision, so the distribution around the median and the chair's framing in the press conference have historically been as informative as the headline number. Worth noting is how the shift sits against where market pricing for that horizon already stood, since convergence of dots toward pricing has on previous occasions validated positioning while gaps have tended to close through the curve.