[ANALYSIS] US–Iran nuclear talks expected to resume in Geneva at 08:30 GMT/ 03:30 EST

OVERVIEW

• The second round of indirect US–Iran nuclear talks is slated for today (Tuesday, 17th February 2026) in Geneva, mediated by Oman.
• US-Iran talks are expected to start at 08:30GMT / 03:30EST, according to Tasnim.
• The most likely outcome is not a full deal today but a decision to keep talks alive, with technical work on enrichment limits, stockpile handling, and sanctions.
• Should talks break down, the chances of military action against Iran (from the US and/or Israel) would rise drastically.
• There is also a non-zero chance that US President Trump may decide to act after this round of talks.

TLDR

• The US delegation is led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Iran is led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
• Trump says he will be “indirectly” involved and is framing the meeting as "high-stakes", warning of consequences if no deal.
• A US build-up of warships and fighter jets has been tracked near Iran, the BBC reported. The US military buildup marks a clear pressure tactic, whilst Iran continues signalling deterrence.
• The core gap between the sides remains unchanged: Washington wants a major rollback of Iran’s enrichment activity, while Tehran insists enrichment is a non-negotiable principle and wants sanctions relief, with the agenda kept nuclear-only.
• IAEA checks are the main condition for any market-credible agreement. Without defined inspection and monitoring mechanisms, traders should treat “deal” headlines with caution.

DETAILS

US aims

• Material limits on Iranian enrichment and stockpile management are the central asks.
• The US would like a broader scope beyond the nuclear file (missiles and regional issues), which increases failure risk if pressed today, reports suggest.

Iran’s posture

• Iran wants the discussion limited to the nuclear file and sanctions relief.
• Tehran publicly drew a red line on the principle of enrichment and rejected “submission before threats” language. Foreign Minister Araghchi and other senior officials have stated that "submission before threats" is not an option and that Iran will never accept a total ban on domestic enrichment. They argue that the right to enrich on Iranian soil is a matter of national sovereignty and "prestige".

Military backdrop and the Strait of Hormuz

• US force posture in/around the Gulf is being used as leverage and raises tail-risk if talks stall or break down.
• Any Hormuz-related operational headline can quickly feed into crude and freight risk premia.
• On Monday, the IRGC naval forces conducted manoeuvres in the Strait of Hormuz to test readiness and review military operations to confront threats, Al Jazeera reported, citing Iranian TV.
• Note, the Russian President's aide said Russia, Iran and China sent ships to the Strait of Hormuz to participate in the "Security Belt 2026" exercise (as telegraphed), Al Jazeera reported.
• Volumes via the Strait of Hormuz represent about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption and more than 25% of all seaborne-traded oil.

What to watch

• Enrichment + sanctions path: Positive sentiment likely if there are clear caps, dilution/exports, or phased rollback tied to verification, with concrete detail on what sanctions are lifted, when, and under which conditions. Possible caution if “zero enrichment” demands are repeated and firmly rejected, or if sanctions relief is vague.
• IAEA mechanics: Explicit inspection, monitoring, stockpile accounting, and timeline language will likely be watched as this would be key to making any deal market-credible.
• Process signals: Positive signs include a scheduled next round, technical working groups, and constructive mediator comments. Negative signs include no follow-up date, suspended talks, or public blame.