BCB says that monetary policy containing secondary effects from shocks

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BCB says that monetary policy containing secondary effects from shocks

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Context

Language of this kind from a central bank, describing policy as containing the secondary effects of supply or price shocks rather than the shocks themselves, is a standard hawkish framing: it signals the bank is looking through first-round moves while standing ready against pass-through into expectations and wage-setting. It has historically been the posture taken after energy or food shocks, and in Brazil's case the relevant precedent is a long record of supply shocks interacting with weakly anchored expectations, which has pushed the BCB toward holding high nominal rates longer than peers. The tell is whether 'containing secondary effects' is being used to justify a hold, a slower easing path, or a resumed hiking cycle; the distinction sits in the front end of the DI curve, where timing re-prices first and the level of the terminal rate second. Follow-ons are the language of the next Copom minutes and statement, the trajectory of inflation expectations in the Focus survey, and any move in administered or indexed prices that would test the second-round thesis. As communication rather than a decision, the signal is directional: this is a bank keeping the burden of proof on disinflation.

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