Brazilian IGP-M Inflation (Sep MM) 1.57% vs. Exp. 1.6% (Prev. -0.22%)

Because a large share of it reflects producer and construction costs, it is highly sensitive to the exchange rate and to global commodity prices, so swings of this magnitude tend to track BRL weakness and imported input costs rather than domestic demand. In past episodes, sharp accelerations in wholesale indices have fed through to the targeted IPCA with a lag, which is why the BCB watches pipeline pressures even though its formal target sits elsewhere. A print essentially in line with expectations rarely re-prices the front of the DI curve on its own; the prior month being negative makes the swing look larger than the underlying signal, a pattern typical of FX-driven base effects. What matters more for the Selic path is whether services inflation and the central bank's own survey expectations are drifting, since the BCB has historically reacted to de-anchoring in those measures rather than to volatile wholesale prints. The next tells are the IPCA release and the copom minutes.