Brazilian Finance Minister Durigan says the government will submit a proposal this year aiming for the centre of the fiscal target, according to Estadão

• Will hold discussions to review the size of Congress budget earmarks, excessive salaries in the public sector and special pension regimes.
• We will increase our primary surplus projection for next year; if necessary, the central bank will also intervene in the FX market.

Targeting the centre of the fiscal band rather than its lower bound is the recurring tell in Brazilian budget politics: the distinction that matters is between a credible primary surplus path and one built on optimistic assumptions, and local rate markets have historically differentiated sharply between the two. The three items named, congressional earmarks, public sector pay, and special pension regimes, are the structurally hardest line items to cut, and past episodes of fiscal consolidation in Brazil have tended to stall precisely on earmark negotiation, where the executive's room for manoeuvre depends on its relationship with Congress. The pairing of a higher surplus projection with an explicit mention of FX intervention is a familiar sequence: fiscal signalling aimed at anchoring expectations, with the central bank smoothing the currency as the near-term bridge, and BRL and the long end of the local curve have typically traded as one expression of fiscal credibility. Whether the proposal is submitted with concrete measures attached, and how congressional leadership responds on earmarks, are the follow-ons that have historically determined whether such announcements hold. As stated intentions rather than enacted policy, the signal is directional.