Datafolha poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro with 49% of votes vs 45% for President Lula in runoff

Pre-election polling of this kind has historically moved Brazilian assets through two distinct channels: the fiscal-credibility channel, where markets price the perceived spending and primary-balance stance of each candidate, and the institutional channel, which prices governability and the risk of contested outcomes. Poll-to-poll moves within the margin of error tend to fade; what has durably repriced BRL, the local curve and Bovespa is a sustained shift in the probability of a change of government, since incumbency in Brazil carries a meaningful structural advantage and runoff dynamics have repeatedly compressed late leads. The Bolsonaro family name has an established market profile: assets have tended to respond favourably to its perceived fiscal-orthodoxy signalling and unfavourably to the institutional-friction risk it has carried in past cycles, and the same split frames this reading. Worth watching is whether subsequent polls from other institutes confirm the direction, any campaign signalling on the fiscal framework and central bank independence, and the sequence of runoff polling versus first-round support transfer, which in past episodes has been the more reliable tell. Single polls this far out have a weak forecasting record; the market pattern is that only a confirmed trend sustains a repricing.