Goldman Sachs raises 2027 TTF Average Price Projection to EUR 51/MWh from EUR 44 to reflect a 45% chance of a low-winter-Mideast LNG supply scenario

• Raises Q127 European Natural Gas price forecast to EUR 74/MWh from EUR 44.

Forecast revisions of this kind from the large sell-side commodity desks tend to matter less for the numbers themselves than for what they reveal about how the house is weighting tail scenarios; moving the central estimate to reflect a probability-weighted supply disruption, rather than waiting for the disruption, is a framing shift that other desks have historically been quick to echo or to push back on. The mechanism here is the winter risk premium in European gas: TTF prices embed expectations for storage draw, LNG cargo availability, and Middle East supply continuity, and a higher assumed probability of disrupted LNG flows feeds directly into the front winter contracts and the seasonal spreads rather than the far curve alone. The distinction worth drawing is between a scenario adjustment and a change in the base case; the former lifts the average through the tail, the latter through the centre, and they trade differently on the curve. On previous occasions when one major house has repriced European gas around geopolitical supply risk, the follow-ons have been peer revisions within days, a widening of the TTF-JKM spread as Asian and European buyers compete for the same marginal cargo, and closer attention to shipping and insurance costs on Gulf routes. Worth observing is whether the raised winter quarter forecasts are accompanied by changed storage assumptions, since that is where the scenario bites first.