ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (Aug): 1-year 3.0% (prev. 2.9%), 3-year 2.9% (prev. 2.7%), 5-year 2.5% (prev. 2.4%)

An uptick across all three horizons, with the short and medium term moving further from target, cuts against the anchoring narrative the Governing Council has leaned on to justify an easing bias, and officials have previously treated unanchoring risk in household expectations as a reason for caution even when market-based measures sit near target. The distinction worth drawing is between a one-off uptick, which the survey has produced before and reversed, and a run of consecutive increases, which would carry more weight with the doves. The tell is how it interacts with negotiated wage data and the staff projections: the ECB has historically put more weight on those than on any single expectations survey. Follow-ons are the next round of GC commentary on expectations anchoring and whether the inflation components of the survey, rather than the headline medians, get cited. As a low-tier release, the established pattern is limited reaction in EUR and short-dated Eonia unless the direction is corroborated elsewhere.