JPM expects BoE to hike interest rates by 25bps in February 2027 (prev. 2 rate cuts in 2027)

In past episodes where Street views on the MPC have swung from easing to tightening, the trigger has typically been a persistence problem in domestically generated inflation, wage growth or services prices, rather than headline energy moves, and the Bank's own reaction function has historically been more sensitive to that stickier core. The transmission runs first through the front end of the gilt curve and SONIA strips, where the expected path reprices before any policy action, with GBP following the rate differential. What separates this from noise is whether other houses follow the revision and whether it aligns with hawkish commentary from MPC members; a lone outlier call has historically faded, while a cluster of revisions has tended to front-run an actual shift in Bank guidance. The near-term tells are the next inflation and labour prints, MPC speaker tone, and whether market pricing converges toward the new view or rejects it.