ECB's Vujcic says market bets on further ECB rate hikes are being largely driven by higher energy prices, will look at a wider set of economic indicators when deciding the next policy move

Comments from a Governing Council member attributing market pricing of further hikes to energy costs sit in a familiar pattern: officials in hiking cycles have historically pushed back when they read front-end pricing as imported from commodity markets rather than driven by domestic demand, and that pushback tends to cap the front end only if the committee's centre of gravity echoes it. The case distinction worth drawing is between a supply-driven inflation impulse, which dampens output and argues for caution, and a demand-driven one, which argues for a higher terminal rate; the remark that higher inflation through Autumn will dampen GDP signals he leans toward the former reading. The dismissal of 'neutral' and 'restrictive' labels is consistent with prior form among policymakers mid-cycle, where the destination is deliberately left vague to preserve optionality while the pace is kept. The tells are whether other Council members adopt the same framing, how energy pass-through shows in core measures, and whether the wider indicator set he cites begins to soften before the next decision. As commentary rather than a decision, the signal is directional on the pace-versus-level question.