ECB Macroeconomic Projections, June 2026 (incl. alternatives):

Baseline:

• Real GDP: 2026 0.8% (prev. 0.9%),  2027 1.2% (prev. 1.3%), 2028 1.5% (prev. 1.4%)
• HICP ex-Energy & Food: 2026 2.5% (prev. 2.3%), 2027 2.5% (prev. 2.2%), 2028 2.2% (prev. 2.1%)
• HICP: 2026 3.0% (prev. 2.6%), 2027 2.3% (prev. 2.0%), 2028 2.0% (prev. 2.1%)

Milder:

• Real GDP: 2026 0.8%, 2027 1.4%, 2028 1.6%
• HICP ex-Energy & Food: 2026 2.4%, 2027 2.3%, 2028 2.1%
• HICP: 2026 2.9%, 2027 1.8%, 2028 1.8%

Adverse:

• Real GDP: 2026 0.7% (prev. 0.6%), 2027 0.9% (prev. 1.2%), 2028 1.5% (prev. 1.6%)
• HICP ex-Energy & Food: 2026 2.5% (prev. 2.4%), 2027 2.7% (prev. 2.7%), 2028 2.3% (prev. 2.1%)
• HICP: 2026 3.3% (prev. 3.5%), 2027 3.0% (prev. 2.1%), 2028 2.3% (prev. 1.6%)

Severe:

• Real GDP: 2026 0.5% (prev. 0.4%), 2027 0.4% (prev. 0.9%), 2028 1.6% (prev. 1.9%)
• HICP ex-Energy & Food: 2026 2.5% (prev. 2.6%), 2027 3.8% (prev. 3.9%), 2028 2.9% (prev. 2.9%)
• HICP: 2026 4.0% (prev. 4.4%), 2027 5.3% (prev. 4.8%), 2028 3.0% (prev. 2.8%)