ECB Macroeconomic Projections, June 2026 (incl. alternatives):

Newsquawk Staff · 11 Jun 2026, 14:10 UTC

Baseline

Real GDP: 2026 0.8% (prev. 0.9%), 2027 1.2% (prev. 1.3%), 2028 1.5% (prev. 1.4%)
HICP ex-Energy & Food: 2026 2.5% (prev. 2.3%), 2027 2.5% (prev. 2.2%), 2028 2.2% (prev. 2.1%)
HICP: 2026 3.0% (prev. 2.6%), 2027 2.3% (prev. 2.0%), 2028 2.0% (prev. 2.1%)

Milder

Real GDP: 2026 0.8%, 2027 1.4%, 2028 1.6%
HICP ex-Energy & Food: 2026 2.4%, 2027 2.3%, 2028 2.1%
HICP: 2026 2.9%, 2027 1.8%, 2028 1.8%

Adverse

Real GDP: 2026 0.7% (prev. 0.6%), 2027 0.9% (prev. 1.2%), 2028 1.5% (prev. 1.6%)
HICP ex-Energy & Food: 2026 2.5% (prev. 2.4%), 2027 2.7% (prev. 2.7%), 2028 2.3% (prev. 2.1%)
HICP: 2026 3.3% (prev. 3.5%), 2027 3.0% (prev. 2.1%), 2028 2.3% (prev. 1.6%)

Severe

Real GDP: 2026 0.5% (prev. 0.4%), 2027 0.4% (prev. 0.9%), 2028 1.6% (prev. 1.9%)
HICP ex-Energy & Food: 2026 2.5% (prev. 2.6%), 2027 3.8% (prev. 3.9%), 2028 2.9% (prev. 2.9%)
HICP: 2026 4.0% (prev. 4.4%), 2027 5.3% (prev. 4.8%), 2028 3.0% (prev. 2.8%)

Sources

ecb.europa.eu

What our latest note said

US Market Open, 22 Oct, 10:37 UTC · what it led with

Iran's IRGC Navy warned that US efforts to encourage passage could result in strikes on US bases.
Iran's Major General Rezaei said Iran has presented seven new conditions through mediators and will neither reopen the Strait of Hormuz nor resume negotiations until they are met.

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