ECB President Lagarde says rates do not move in lockstep with energy prices, and that other factors play a role

The distinction worth drawing is between the headline impulse, which the Governing Council has historically signalled it can tolerate, and pass-through into core and wages, which is what has actually moved the terminal rate and the back end of the curve. Lagarde's prior form in energy episodes has been to stress reaction-function flexibility and data dependence rather than pre-commitment, and the 'measured approach' and 'well positioned' framing fits that template, typically leaving the front end sensitive to each incoming print rather than to guidance. Remarks of this kind also tend to raise the weight placed on the staff projections and on wage and core releases at the next meetings, which is where the sequencing has played out in comparable episodes. The digital euro timelines are standing programme detail rather than a rates signal. As commentary rather than a decision, the signal is that the Council is not validating a one-to-one market pricing of energy into the path.