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ECB SAFE: "Inflation expectations were broadly unchanged across horizons, with firms continuing to report upside risks to their long-term inflation outlook."

The ECB's report indicates stability in inflation expectations, which suggests that short-term monetary policy may not necessitate significant adjustments.

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ECB SAFE: "Inflation expectations were broadly unchanged across horizons, with firms continuing to report upside risks to their long-term inflation outlook."

South African ABSA Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 48.7 (Prev. 40.5)

EU HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (Jan) 49.5 vs. Exp. 49.4 (Prev. 48.8)

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  • Firms reported a net tightening in bank loan interest rates and in other loan conditions related to both price and non-price factors.
  • Financing needs rose modestly, accompanied by a small perceived decline in availability.
  • Inflation expectations were broadly unchanged across horizons, with firms continuing to report upside risks to their long-term inflation outlook.
  • The use of artificial intelligence is widespread among euro area firms, though most firms use it very infrequently or moderately.
Context

The noted tightening in bank loan conditions alongside rising financing needs may indicate caution among firms, affecting their investment outlook. Overall, the ECB will likely interpret these signals as supporting a gradual approach to policy, with an eye on long-term inflation risks.

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