IEA cuts 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 850k BPD (prev. 930k BPD); cuts 2026 global oil supply growth forecast to 2.4mln BPD (prev. 2.5mln BPD)
Newsquawk Staff ·
- Lowers 2026 forecast for non-OPEC+ supply growth to 1.2mln BPD (prev. 1.3mln BPD).
- Escalating geopolitical tensions, snowstorms and extreme temperatures in North America, and Kazakh supply disruptions sparked the reversal to a bullish market.
What it means
The IEA's downward revision of both global oil demand and supply growth forecasts for 2026 highlights increased geopolitical risks and supply disruptions affecting the market outlook. This suggests potential tightening in oil availability, which could support prices in the medium term, particularly as these revisions contrast with earlier bullish expectations.
Sources
- ADNOC reportedly informed some Asian refiners that it may begin delivering Upper Zakum crude via a new pipeline to the Fujairah terminal in early 2027, allowing shipments to bypass the disrupted Strait of Hormuz, according to Bloomberg
- US White House says the oil agreement with Venezuela will deliver a total of 65bln barrels
- Syria and Iraq discuss exporting Iraqi oil via the Baniyas pipeline
- UAE’s Sharjah temporarily closes all its beaches as a precautionary measure after an oil spill, according to a statement
- Russian Deputy PM Novak says they are open to work with US partners on energy, but there are no current discussions around a return to specific projects
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