[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude lower as while there have been numerous geopolitical updates, the immediate situation has not meaningfully escalated

• Crude in the red, despite the geopolitical situation updating on several fronts, though with caveats to much of that. Pressure that comes as, while the below points are of note, the severity of the immediate situation has not significantly changed.
• Firstly, the WSJ reported that recent US action means that China is now no longer as interested in LatAm and instead will be focusing on the Taiwan Strait, though no immediate moves are expected.
• Secondly, the US called for its citizens to leave Iran, and Israel is reportedly of the view that a US attack on Iran is not a question of if, but when. Since, Iranian officials have made clear that they would strike US bases in the region in the event of a US attack. While this language is escalatory, it is the usual playbook by Iran.
• WTI and Brent are softer by just over USD 0.60/bbl, at the low end of respective USD 60.43-61.20/bbl and USD 64.71-65.45/bbl bands.

Crude prices are under pressure, despite numerous geopolitical updates indicating heightened tensions. However, the lack of significant immediate escalation suggests that traders may view these developments as a continuation of existing narratives rather than a new crisis, keeping energy markets subdued for now. This dovetails with broader sentiment in Forex, where the dollar and other currencies must balance these geopolitical risks against the prevailing market climate.