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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Energy continues to climb as the Iranian war enters day four

The ongoing conflict in Iran, now into its fourth day, is supporting energy prices, specifically WTI and Brent, as tensions regarding the Strait of Hormuz escalate.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Energy continues to climb as the Iranian war enters day four

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  • WTI and Brent futures remain firmer within USD 70.41-74.19/bbl and USD 76.74-79.27/bbl, with prices underpinned as the Iran conflict entered a fourth day, with the IRGC threatening to attack any ship trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, while US President Trump warned of larger strikes against Iran (analysis on the Newsquawk feed).
  • Analysts at ING suggest, "Oil price movements have been fairly modest, given the amount of supply at risk and uncertainty about how long disruptions could persist. Part of the explanation: the market had already been pricing in a fairly large risk premium in the lead-up to these attacks. Also, the market appears to be pricing in a relatively short-lived disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which the large surplus markets expect this year should be able to absorb."
  • US Secretary of State Rubio said Treasury Secretary Bessent and Energy Secretary Wright will announce steps to mitigate oil costs, while the White House announced that President Trump will meet with Bessent and Wright at 14:00EST/19:00GMT on Tuesday. That being said, yesterday, there were reports that the US has no immediate plans to use the SPR.
  • Nat Gas has been in focus amid the upside from the war, further exacerbated by Qatar's shuttering of output yesterday. Qatar accounts for roughly one-fifth of global LNG supply. Analysts warn that every week of downtime removes 1.6-1.8mln tons of LNG from the global market. Dutch TTF currently trades +23% intraday at EUR 54.805/MWh vs around EUR 32/MWh on February 27th.
Context

Analysts note that while the situation could affect oil supply, the market has already priced in substantial risks, suggesting any disruptions may be short-lived as surpluses could absorb temporary shortages. The geopolitical dynamics are also influencing natural gas prices significantly, with Qatar's cessation of output exacerbating supply concerns.

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