[MARKET ANALYSIS] USTs rebounds from the hawkish FOMC announcement; focus now lies on the BoE and BoJ

The rebound here arriving alongside pressure in crude is worth noting, since softening energy prices ease the inflation impulse that a hawkish Fed lean rests on, a channel that has historically supported duration after tightening shocks. The immediate calendar is dense, and back-to-back G10 decisions tend to see cross-market spillover: the BoE vote split and the QT recalibration matter for gilt supply at the long end, where halting active sales in the long-dated sector would change the duration absorption picture, while a fully priced BoJ hike shifts the question from the move itself to the pace signal and any hint of larger increments from the hawkish wing. The relevant distinction across the three is between fully telegraphed moves, where the reaction hinges on guidance, and split or surprise outcomes, where the front end and the belly reprice. The tell in coming sessions is whether the UST bounce holds through the European decisions or fades as fresh supply of central bank risk reprices the global curve.