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[MARKET UPDATE] Modest hawkish reaction in EUR and Bunds on the EZ Flash HICP figures, as bets for a cooler-than-expected print following the German series unwind. The move proved fleeting with HICP at the ECB's target and the on-hold narrative maintained

The slight hawkish market reaction to the Eurozone Flash HICP figures indicates that traders initially anticipated a softer inflation print post-German data.

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[MARKET UPDATE] Modest hawkish reaction in EUR and Bunds on the EZ Flash HICP figures, as bets for a cooler-than-expected print following the German series unwind. The move proved fleeting with HICP at the ECB's target and the on-hold narrative maintained

EU Inflation Rate YoY Flash (Dec) 2.0% Y/Y vs. Exp. 2% (Prev. 2.1%); Services 3.4% (prev. 3.5%)

EU HICP Excluding Food & Energy Flash YY (Dec) 2.3% vs. Exp. 2.4%

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  • Bund Mar'26 fell from 128.22 to 128.12 before paring over the course of 15-minutes.
  • EUR/USD lifted from 1.1683 to 1.1689.
Context

However, with HICP at the ECB's target, this suggests that the prevailing on-hold narrative remains intact, limiting any significant movement in rates or currency. The fleeting nature of the reactions in Bunds and EUR/USD underscores the market's readiness to pivot quickly upon confirming data that align with existing expectations.

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