NBH Minutes (Jan): The inflation outlook was in line with the December projection

• Several members stressed that the decrease in global food prices and the pass-through of a stronger forint to import prices supported disinflation. Regarding the external cost environment, however, the decision makers drew attention to rising energy prices.
• In their January decision, the Monetary Council discussed a single option, i.e. leaving the base rate unchanged.
• Based on incoming macroeconomic data and factors impacting the inflation outlook, the Council unanimously decided to leave the base rate unchanged at the meeting, in line with its stability-oriented approach.

The NBH minutes indicate a consensus to maintain the base rate, aligning with previous inflation projections from December. The emphasis on disinflationary pressures from food prices and a stronger forint suggests a cautious outlook, yet rising energy costs may complicate the inflation landscape moving forward. This steady stance may signal that the central bank remains locked into a wait-and-see approach as it balances inflationary pressures in a complex external environment.