New Zealand GDP Growth Rate (Q2 QQ) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.9%)

In episodes of this kind the split between the surprise and the level matters more than either alone: front-end rates and the currency have historically traded off the rate-path implication, and a beat that still leaves growth well below trend tends to be faded if the central bank's reaction function is already pointed toward easing. The composition is the tell, since New Zealand releases of this kind have often turned on whether the softness is concentrated in domestic demand and housing-linked activity, which the RBNZ reads as evidence that policy is working, or in volatile components like inventories and agriculture, which tend to be discounted. Per-capita terms have flattered headline GDP in past cycles of strong population growth, so the per-head print is worth separating from the aggregate. The follow-ons are any revision to the prior quarter, the details on consumption and investment, and whether the print shifts the pricing of the next RBNZ decision relative to the bank's own published track. As a backward-looking release, its weight sits against the higher-frequency labour and inflation data that follow.