OPEC MOMR: 2026 world oil demand remains at 1.4mln BPD (unchanged from the Jan MOMR), 2027 world oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3mln BPD Y/Y (unchanged from the Jan MOMR)
Oil Demand
- Global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4mln BPD Y/Y, unchanged from last month’s assessment.
- In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3mln BPD Y/Y, unchanged from last month’s assessment.
- Oil demand in the non-OECD is forecast to be mostly driven by requirements from Other Asia, supported by India and China.
- Oil demand growth is expected to be supported by strong air travel demand and healthy road mobility, including on-road diesel and trucking, as well as healthy industrial, construction, and agricultural activities in non-OECD countries. Similarly, capacity additions and petrochemical margins are expected to continue to contribute to growth.
Supply
- Non-DoC liquids production (i.e., liquids production from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.6mlb BPD Y/Y, in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment,
- In 2027, non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6mln BPD, unchanged from last month’s assessment, mainly driven by Brazil, Canada, Qatar, and Argentina.
Context
OPEC's latest report maintains its forecasts for global oil demand in 2026 and 2027, projecting growth at stable rates. This consistency in demand expectations, despite geopolitical tensions and supply uncertainties, suggests an underlying confidence in non-OECD markets, notably driven by regions like India and China. Traders should consider the implications for prices, as stable demand coupled with steady production levels could maintain current market conditions, but potential shifts in geopolitical dynamics could introduce volatility.
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