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Sell-side on Tesla (TSLA): Shares gain amid earnings beat but attention on path ahead given CapEx hike

Tesla's recent earnings release showed stronger-than-expected results, which initially buoyed shares, but the market is pivoting its focus toward the company's significant capex increases and strategic shift towards AI and autonomy.

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Sell-side on Tesla (TSLA): Shares gain amid earnings beat but attention on path ahead given CapEx hike

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  • Mizuho raises PT to USD 540 (prev. 530) and keeps an ‘Outperform’ rating; notes TSLA will see slow EV demand in 2026 as it focuses on gradually pivoting to AI software and robotaxi. Mizuho upped PT, saying Co. is well positioned as a leader in physical AI.
  • Goldman Sachs raises PT to USD 405 (prev. 400) and keeps a ‘Neutral’ rating; results better than exp. amid higher margins. While a large part of Tesla's implied valuation has long been tied to future profits associated with its AI related efforts, GS adds success in these areas will be even more in focus going forward given Cos. planned increase in capex.
  • Barclays maintains PT of 360 and keeps an ‘Equal Weight’ rating; while automotive remains Tesla's core business "for the time being," the end of the S and X models mark the "symbolic baton pass" for Tesla from automotive and into physical AI. The firm adds autonomy and bots will be Tesla's core growth focus for the years to come, and "paving the path for growth will be costly." The main takeaway of the earnings call was the "sharp spike" in capex in 2026.
  • Morgan Stanley lowers PT to USD 415 (prev. 425) and keeps an ‘Equal Weight’ rating; Q was better than feared, but the focus on the call wasn't about progress and milestones in the auto business, but the transformational pivot from EVs to physical AI. The firm lowers PT to reflect a 5% and 10% decrease, respectively, in its 2026 and 2027 adj. EBITDA estimates and elevated cash burn as capex accelerates.
Context

While firms like Mizuho and Goldman Sachs remain optimistic about Tesla's positioning for future growth, concerns about slowing EV demand and rising costs are underpinning mixed ratings from analysts, indicating a potential reevaluation of the stock's long-term valuation amidst heightened capital expenditures. This suggests that while the short-term outlook may be positive, investors should brace for volatility as Tesla transitions its core business focus, which could impact margins going forward.

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