Greece Fiscal Council 2027 draft budget sees GDP at 2% in 2026 and "slightly higher" for 2027

Greek fiscal council drafts matter less for the growth print than for what they imply about the primary surplus trajectory, which has been the binding variable for Greek sovereign spreads since the country's post-programme normalisation. Sustained primary surpluses of this size have historically been the mechanism through which Greek debt dynamics outrun the interest-growth differential, and that arithmetic is what has compressed GGB-Bund spreads over successive budgets of this type. The distinction worth drawing is between the council's forecast and the government's final budget submission: councils in this role have tended to act as a check on official optimism, and divergences between the two have previously been the tell for slippage risk. Growth assumptions of this order are consistent with Greece's established pattern of outpacing the euro area average, which has been the standard backdrop for ratings agencies' upgrade cycles on the sovereign. Follow-ons that matter are the formal budget tabling, any commission assessment of the surplus path, and whether the assumptions hold against execution on the expenditure side, where past slippage has concentrated. As a council draft rather than final policy, the signal is directional on the fiscal stance rather than definitive.