[MARKET ANALYSIS] Fixed income trades muted ahead of BoJ rate announcement

The muted trading in Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) ahead of the BoJ's rate announcement suggests market participants are cautiously awaiting direction, likely expecting no change in rates.

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  • UST Futures continue to hold onto gains following the heavy US data docket, which saw PCE come in as expected, limiting the move in USTs.
  • Bund Futures oscillate around Thursday’s settlement price, as markets await EZ flash PMIs.
  • JGB Futures trade flat, reversing earlier gains seen following the slightly cooler inflation print, as markets await the BoJ rate decision during the Tokyo lunch break. Traders are expecting the Bank to leave rates unchanged, with eyes on the updated outlook report and the post-policy conference by Governor Ueda.
Context

The focus will be on the updated outlook report and comments from Governor Ueda, which may influence expectations for future policy. Overall, this sets a backdrop of uncertainty that could lead to increased volatility once the decision is revealed.

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