Flavio Bolsonaro is technically tied with Lula in the second round: 43% to 46%, reducing the PT candidate's advantage from 15 points in December to just 3 points, according to Datafolha

The narrowing poll numbers between Flavio Bolsonaro and Lula indicate a tightening race in Brazil, potentially unsettling markets that had priced in Lula's prior advantage. This shift could heighten political uncertainty, raising concerns over policy continuity and its impact on investor sentiment, particularly in emerging markets. A close election outcome may lead to volatility in Brazilian assets as traders reassess their positions ahead of the final vote.